2023-03-10Ethiopia, situated in the eastern highlands of Africa, plays a pivotal role in its national economic development through agriculture. With a population of nearly 90 million, over 85% of the workforce is engaged in agriculture, contributing to more than 47% of the GDP. Furthermore, 90% of foreign exchange is generated from agricultural exports, making it a cornerstone of the national economy and the primary source of income for the people. This document aims to explore a path suitable for China-Ethiopia agricultural cooperation based on the characteristics and challenges of agricultural development in Ethiopia.
I. Current state of Ethiopian agriculture
1. Its livestock inventory leads Africa, holding a prominent position in the agricultural sector. Ethiopia stands as a major player in Africa's livestock sector, ranking first on the continent and tenth globally in livestock inventory. According to data from the Ethiopian National Statistical Office as of November 10, 2012, Ethiopia boasts a significant livestock population, with 53.99 million cattle, 25.49 million sheep, 24.06 million goats, and 50.38 million poultry (chickens). Additionally, there are 1.91 million horses, 6.75 million donkeys, and 0.035 million mules. The yielded value contributes approximately 40% to the agricultural GDP and 17-20% to the total GDP. 31% of the agricultural workforce is engaged in livestock production, and income generated from this sector accounts for 87% of the annual cash income for farmers. The total export value of livestock products secures the second position in the country, following only coffee.
2. Grains, beans, and oilseeds are its primary crops, and rapid growth has been witnessed in the horticulture sector. In the fiscal year 2012/2013, the primary agricultural production reached 23.12 million tons, marking a notable year-on-year increase of 5.8%. The perennially cultivated area for crops in Ethiopia hovers around 13.5 million hectares, with the annual grain planting area reaching 9.32 million hectares during the four fiscal years from 2008/2009 to 2011/2012. Key cereal crops include teff, wheat, barley, maize, sorghum, and millet. Dominant oilseed crops comprise sesame, rapeseed, linseed, peanuts, sunflower seeds, guizotia abyssinica, and cottonseeds. The escalating global demand for sesame has propelled Ethiopia's sesame exports, reaching 287,000 tons in the fiscal year 2008-2009, contributing USD3.56 billion, constituting 24.6% of the total export revenue.
Additionally, the horticulture industry stands as one of Ethiopia's fastest-growing sectors. From August 2012 to April 2013 (over a 9-month period), exports generated USD170 million, with 80% attributed to the revenue from fresh flowers. Ethiopia's flower industry has experienced rapid growth over the past 5 years, making it the second-largest flower exporter in Africa (only surpassed by Kenya) and the fourth-largest globally. Flower export revenue increased from USD27.9 million in 2002/2003 to USD1.78 billion in 2010/2011. The projected export revenue for 2016 is estimated to reach USD550 million.
3. The agricultural regions exhibit clear demarcations, with each area showcasing distinctive industries. Ethiopia is situated on the African highlands, with an average elevation ranging from 2,500 to 3,000 meters. The highest point reaches 4,620 meters, while the lowest point lies 125 meters below sea level. Due to the diversity of natural resources and geographical variations across different regions, each area features distinct industries. For instance, the cultivation of cereal crops is predominantly concentrated in the AMAHARA and OROMIA regions, while cattle are primarily distributed in OROMIA, AMHARA, SEPAR, and TIGRARY regions. Coffee is a major crop cultivated in the southern regions, and sugarcane thrives in well-irrigated river valleys. Coffee holds a pivotal role in Ethiopia's commercial crops, serving as a primary export commodity. The coffee varieties exhibit greater genetic diversity compared to other nations, with the 4 major production areas cultivating 9 different varieties. The total coffee cultivation area spans 395,000 hm2, positioning Ethiopia at the forefront of coffee production in Africa. In the fiscal year 2012/2013, coffee exports generated a revenue of USD740 million, with plans to export 277,000 tons in the current fiscal year, anticipating earnings exceeding USD1 billion.
4. Bamboo, sugarcane, cotton, and other industries show significant advantages, with broad development prospects.
Bamboo. Ethiopia's bamboo forest covers an area of approximately 1 million hectares, accounting for 5% of the global bamboo forest area (approximately 22 million hectares) and 71% of Africa's total area. The favorable climate and suitable soil resources promote the growth of bamboo forests. Ethiopia has a solid foundation in bamboo processing and utilization compared to other African countries, leading to its strong regional competitiveness.
Sugarcane. Sugarcane is the main raw material for Ethiopia's sugar industry, with an average yield of 152.71 tons per hm2 and an average sugar content of 12.48%. This is significantly higher than the levels in other African countries. The demand for sugarcane in the Ethiopian market is far from saturated, with per capita consumption only at 6kg, much lower than the global average of 20kg. The by-products of sugarcane processing can find comprehensive utilization, contributing to vast prospects for the chain development of the sugar industry.
Cotton. With 2.5 million hectares of land available for cotton cultivation, only 111,886 hectares are currently dedicated to cotton farming. In 2011, cotton production was 51,000 tons, and in 2012, it increased by 29% to 79,741 tons.
Ⅱ. Pros and Cons of Agricultural Development in Ethiopia
Challenges in the agricultural development of Ethiopia:
1. Agricultural infrastructure needs urgent improvement due to natural constraints. Although irrigation and farming techniques have improved in recent years, some areas still rely on rain-fed agriculture. Issues such as low water resource utilization and soil erosion persist. Despite being hailed as the "East African water tower," the average irrigation coverage on the total arable land is merely 1.2%. There is a pressing need for the further promotion and demonstration of modernized irrigation facilities.
2. The agricultural production methods in Ethiopia remain entrenched in tradition, providing ample scope for advancements in agricultural per unit yield and productivity. Many regions still adhere to conventional farming practices, characterized by a low coverage of improved varieties. There is a need for further expansion in the application of pesticides and fertilizers. Agricultural per unit yield, particularly for crops like wheat and rice, are notably low. In some Ethiopian production zones, the per unit yield for wheat stands at a mere 1,520kg/hm2, and for rice, it is 1,802kg/hm2. The exit rates and per unit yield levels of cattle are approximately 20% to 30% lower than those observed in East Africa.
3. Subsistence agriculture holds a significant share in Ethiopia, necessitating efforts to address the demand gaps for agricultural products. The prevalent small-scale and decentralized farming practices among Ethiopian households have, to a certain extent, impeded effective connections between farmers and markets, production and technology, and governmental entities and farmers. This hindrance poses constraints on the professionalization, scalability, and industrialization of agriculture. With the rapid population growth and accelerated urbanization in Ethiopia, the demand for primary agricultural products such as vegetables and milk is expected to surge. Projections indicate that by 2020, Ethiopia's demand for milk will reach 11 million tons, creating a potential shortfall of 8.42 million tons if milk production increases at a rate of 1% annually.
However, the country benefits from a host of favorable conditions. For instance, the increasing demand for agricultural products, both domestically and globally, presents vast market opportunities. The Ethiopian government's proactive efforts in agricultural foreign investment and the implementation of favorable policies are drawing foreign capital into the agricultural sector. Additionally, ongoing international cooperation and assistance contribute to a stable external environment for agricultural advancement.
